Cup-origin analytics · inside the call

How a fine-tuned local model turns molecular evidence into a cancer-origin verdict: waterfall, cloud vs local probabilities, calibration. Demo case, no patient data.

1 · Feature contributions

Each bar picks up where the previous ends — base 0 pp to +29.0 pp behind the 42% NSCLC call. Hover for the reason; click to pin it open.

SBS4 (smoking)
+20.0 pp
SBS24
+6.0 pp
MDM2 amplification
+5.0 pp
KRAS variants
−3.5 pp
Age
+1.5 pp
Final evidence
+29.0 pp

supports the call opposes cumulative total

2 · Probability distribution — Jev cloud vs GUT local

Jev cloud zero-shot vs GUT local fine-tuned, same 0–45% scale. Hover a bar for what the class means.

Jev cloud (zero-shot)

NSCLC42%
COADREAD11%
STAD6%
PRAD5%
insufficient8%
other5%

GUT local (fine-tuned)

NSCLC38%
COADREAD24%
STAD9%
PRAD4%
insufficient6%
other4%

Key: NSCLC non-small cell lung · COADREAD colorectal · STAD stomach · PRAD prostate · insufficient not enough evidence for a call · other outside the 22-class taxonomy. Top pick per engine in red.

3 · Calibration status

Where the model's confidence sits on the trust scale — and whether to take it at face value.

00.51.0
0.42
model confidence on the top class (NSCLC)
0–0.50 · uncalibrated0.50–0.80 · partial0.80–1.00 · calibrated
Calibration error: 0.539 (target: ≤ 0.10)
FAIL — needs more training data

In plain English: how honest the model's confidence is. Trustworthy models score 0.10 or lower; this one scores 0.539 — stated confidence runs ahead of actual accuracy. Until it trains on more labeled cases, treat the percentages above as a rough ranking, not reliable probabilities.